No longer doubted, Giants' Thomas finds niche on special teams
Football Betting Lines
01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Devin Thomas always believed he'd be an impact player in the National Football League, albeit with another team and in a far different role than the one he currently occupies with the New York Giants.
Four years ago, the physically-gifted wide receiver was hailed as a potential future frontline player after bursting onto the radar of scouts and personnel executives with a sensational junior season at Michigan State. Blessed with 4.4 speed on a chiseled 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame, Thomas was a tantalizing prospect but a cautionary one as well, having to overcome the dual stigmas of a limited track record of collegiate success as well as the position's history of early entrees struggling at the professional level.
Thomas did indeed get his career off to a slow start, managing just 120 yards on 15 receptions as a rookie with the Washington Redskins, who made the now 25- year-old the third pick of the second round (No. 34 overall) in the 2008 draft. But a more productive second season, highlighted by a seven-catch, 100-yard, two-touchdown outburst against New Orleans in December, seemed to be a positive sign that the talented youngster was on the right path to stardom.
There would be a few unexpected bumps along that road, however. The Redskins changed coaches following the 2009 campaign, with Mike Shanahan taking over for the ousted Jim Zorn, and Thomas quickly fell out of favor with the new regime. He was waived four games into the 2010 season, promptly picked up by Carolina, then cut loose again in November after failing to make an impression on that staff.
In dire need of wide receiver depth after injuries to starters Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, the Giants claimed Thomas off waivers from the Panthers offering the sudden journeyman nothing more than a chance to contribute on special teams.
Having realized it could be his last chance, Thomas was quick to accept and embrace his new duties. He logged two tackles and partially blocked a punt that led to a field goal in his first game as a Giant, a 31-7 win during Week 13 of last season.
The opponent? Why, the Washington Redskins.
Thomas has maintained a permanent place on the active gameday roster in his first full year in New York, despite having little opportunity on an offense that boasts a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Nicks and breakout performer Victor Cruz and a more established No. 3 man in Mario Manningham, taken by the Giants in the third round of that same 2008 draft in which such notables as Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Stevie Johnson were also picked behind Thomas.
"My position as a fourth or fifth wide receiver and special-teams player, I take pride in that and do anything to help this team win," he said following the Giants' 20-17 overtime victory over San Francisco in the NFC Championship.
Thomas did just that against the 49ers, astutely pouncing on a pair of fumbles by San Francisco punt returner Kyle Williams that were both pivotal to the final outcome. The first was converted into an Eli Manning touchdown pass to Manningham that gave New York a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter; the last set up kicker Lawrence Tynes' 31-yard field that landed the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.
"I had vision in my mind that I was going to make some type of big play to help us win the game," Thomas said.
And for maybe the first time in a career that's better known for its downs than ups, Devin Thomas could say he was in the right place at exactly the right time.
Below is a capsule look at the special teams of the New York Giants, with regular season statistics in parentheses:
Placekicker: Tynes didn't have a remarkable regular season, as his 79.2 percent (19-of-24) success rate on field goals was the Scottish-born kicker's lowest in his five years with the Giants and he made good on a shaky 4-of-8 tries from 40 yards or beyond. The 33-year-old has shown an affinity for coming through in the clutch, however, having also sent Big Blue into its memorable Super Bowl clash with New England four years back by drilling a deciding 47-yard attempt in overtime to down Green Bay in the 2007 NFC Championship.
Punter: Free-agent pickup Steve Weatherford, a member of the crosstown-rival Jets the previous two seasons, bolstered what had been a major problem area for the Giants in 2010 by averaging a career-best 45.7 yards per punt with his new team. The six-year pro has been even better during this playoff run, averaging 46.4 yards per boot (40.6 net avg.) and having only nine of his 18 kicks returned.
Long-snapper: The versatile Zak DeOssie has handled these duties since breaking into the league in 2007 and has twice been named to the Pro Bowl (2008, 2010) as a need player during his time with the Giants. Initially drafted as a linebacker, the Massachusetts native also serves as New York's special teams captain and finished fourth on the club with 10 coverage tackles this season.
Punt Returners: This has not been an area of strength for the Giants in 2011, as their average of 6.1 yards per return was the fourth-lowest mark in the league and the team didn't have one of more than 18 yards. Cornerbacks Aaron Ross (7.1 avg.) and Will Blackmon (4.2 avg.), who does own three career punt return touchdowns, have received the bulk of the work.
Kickoff Returners: Thomas began the season as New York's primary kick returner and averaged a respectable 24.3 yards per attempt for the year, but was taken off the assignment in November after experiencing some ball security issues. Rookie receiver Jerrel Jernigan (23.3 avg.) has been the main man as of late and performed steadily, though the Giants finished just 20th in that category as a team prior to the postseason.
Special Teams Defense: The Giants' coverage corps was solid during the regular season, limiting teams to 9.9 yards per punt return and 22.9 on kickoffs while not allowing a special-teams touchdown over the course of the year, and certainly made a difference in the narrow win over San Francisco in the NFC Championship. Rookie linebacker Jacquian Williams came up with the critical strip of the Niners' Kyle Williams in overtime and recorded a team-best 17 special-teams tackles for a group that also received noteworthy efforts from two other 2011 draft choices -- safety Tyler Sash (15 tackles) and linebacker Greg Jones.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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